Saturday, February 18, 2006

Which country's interests would be served by a unified Korea? (submitted to CanKor #237)

Reunification would serve the interests of all six parties except for the United States. With the end of the Korean War that this implies, Korea would likely request that the U.S. withdraw its military presence from Korean soil. China-Korea economic relations would grow stronger fueled by the economic boom engendered by Chinese-style "opening and reform" in the former DPRK region. Russia, China and Korea would develop the Tumen Delta into an important hub for global trade. But reunification would only occur in the context of a weakened US with significantly reduced global influence due to a crisis of confidence in the US economy, comparable to the decline of the former Soviet Union in the 80s and 90s. Japan in this case would have little choice but to fall into place in a China-dominated Asia-Pacific. Without US protection, Taiwan would cease to be able to maintain de facto independence of China and would "return to the embrace of the motherland."

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