Thursday, December 30, 2010

Comments by Jin Canrong of People's University on DPRK crisis

"China's approach towards the Korean peninsula is fundamentally different from that of the US – the six-party talks are not a way to solve the problem but to control the crisis."
He sees Beijing's long-term goal as helping North Korea transform from an ideology-driven country to a normal member of the international community and from a political system focused on the military to one focused on the economy – much like the path that China has taken over the past 30 years.

Monday, December 27, 2010

U.S. to Send Another Nuke-Powered Aircraft Carrier to NE Asia

"China's official Xinhua news agency said the new addition could raise tensions in the region, with the Chinese military already calling it the biggest threat to China and North Korea in six decades."

Friday, December 24, 2010

China Re-Thinking DPRK Policy?

"As evidence of the policy shift, officials pointed to recent remarks by China's foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, in which he urged the North and South 'to carry out dialogue and contact.'  Previously, Beijing's response had been to propose an emergency meeting of the six-party group that negotiates with North Korea over its nuclear program, a step the United States opposed as rewarding the North's aggression."

Thursday, December 23, 2010

US downplaying DPRK threat of imminent "sacred war" with use of nuclear weaponry

@markmackinnon: More saber-rattling on the peninsula - North Korea says "getting fully prepared to launch sacred war of justice":

Comment by me: This does not look at all good. If China supports DPRK militarily this could go from bad to about as bad as it can get!

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Continuing Prospect of Resumption of Korean War

@markmackinnon: South Korea prepares to hold another massive military drill, vows to "punish the enemy" if North strikes again:

Comment by me: Current ROK assertiveness appears to be at least partially  a proxy for deteriorating faith in China's willingness to play a constructive role in global affairs

Monday, December 20, 2010

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Close to Resumption of Korean War?

Korean War could resume in a matter of hours. US troops in ROK could be drawn in quickly.

Later: RT @markmackinnon ... without UN action, Seoul has to go ahead or lose credibility at home and in the region. Expect North will also keep promise to retaliate

Later: @markmackinnon: It would seem South Korea's controversial drill is now over. No North Korean response. Did Seoul just win a terrifying game of chicken?

Monday morning: NYT "North Korea Says It Will Not Retaliate After South’s Drills" 

My interview with Lynn Desjardins on the English Service of Radio Canada International on Korean strategic instability broadcast on December 20 can be heard at:

This is an excellent  analysis of the situation:

Friday, December 17, 2010

South Korea's patience with North running out

@markmackinnon: Dangerous times - After years of turning other cheek, South Koreans now want to punch back at North:

Vatican in new clash with China over church - Yahoo! News

"The persistent desire to control the most intimate area of citizens' lives, namely their conscience, and to interfere in the internal life of the Catholic church does no credit to China," the Vatican said.
"On the contrary, it seems to be a sign of fear and weakness rather than of strength," the Vatican said.

North Korea vows to strike if South holds planned live-fire drill

Situation continues to intensify.

Sunday, December 12, 2010

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Review & Outlook: Pyongyang's Accomplice -

Editorial in the Wall Street Journal: "Mr. Obama is due to treat Mr. Hu to a state visit in Washington early next year. We suggest the President cancel the invitation until Beijing ceases to be Pyongyang's accomplice."

Friday, December 03, 2010

China remains passive as Korean standoff escalates | McClatchy

Although the North and South have long traded threats, tensions on the Korean Peninsula now are at the highest levels in decades.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency Friday reported that North Korea had added 100 multiple-launch rockets to its arsenal of some 5,200 capable of hitting the South Korean capital. The agency also reported that South Korea planned to soon begin live fire artillery exercises near five islands in the Yellow Sea, including Yeonpyeong.

Comment: China's political paralysis as the situation deteriorates is very worrying.

My interview on Radio Canada International Mandarin Service about North Korea