加拿大關注中國人權聯盟 (The Canadian Coalition on Human Rights in China)* 發公開信要求加拿大外交部長 Chrystia Freeland，透過更緊密與加拿大盟友合作，帶領全球還劉霞自由運動，並且主動邀請劉霞來加拿大居住。
The Canadian Coalition on Human Rights in China* has sent an open letter to Chrystia Freeland, the Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs, to urge her to work closely with allies to lead a concerted global campaign to win Liu Xia freedom. Moreover, to demand Canadian government to demonstrate strong global human rights leadership by continuing to press for Liu Xia's unconditional freedom and by offering her safe haven through an invitation to come and live in Canada.
*The Canadian Coalition on Human Rights in China is made up of 15 Canadian organizations dedicated to ensuring there is strong attention to human rights in Canada's relationship in China. The 15 organizations include:
Amnesty International Canada (English & Francophone Branches), ARC International, Canada-Hong Kong Link, Canada Tibet Committee, Canadian HIV/AIDS Legal Network, Canadian Labour Congress, Falun Dafa Association of Canada, Federation for a Democratic China, Movement for Democracy in China (Calgary), PEN Canada, Students for a Free Tibet Canada, Toronto Association for Democracy in China, the Uyghur Canadian Society and the Vancouver Society in Support of Democratic Movement in China.
Full Text of the Open Letter to Minister of Foreign Affairs, Chrystia Freeland:
August 2, 2017
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland
Minister of Foreign Affairs
House of Commons
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A6
Dear Minister,
We write this Open Letter to you as members of the Canadian Coalition on Human Rights in China,1 urging that the Canadian government and you personally continue make determined efforts to seek the unconditional release of LIU Xia, the widow of LIU Xiaobo, who is currently under house arrest in China.
We have very much welcomed your clear support of LIU Xia following her husband’s tragic death; and urge you to go further and work closely with allies to lead a concerted global campaign to win her freedom. Doing so would send a powerful message to China that Canada and others in the international community do not and will not tolerate the ongoing persecution and repression she has endured.
As you know, LIU Xia has been kept in house arrest and isolation since October 2010. As a result, she has suffered from psychological stress, anxiety and depression. The latest we have heard is that she has been forcibly sent away from her home. Her crime? She refused to stay silent and desist from trying to secure the release of her wrongfully-imprisoned husband, while he was still alive.
On July 13, 2017, after LIU Xiaobo’s death in custody, the first Nobel Peace Laureate to die in state custody since Nazi Germany, you tweeted:
Terribly sad that this champion of human rights has died. We mourn his loss but his message of hope and freedom will endure. #LIUXiaobo
And again on July 16, 2017, you tweeted to the world and spoke out for his widow LIU Xia on behalf of all Canadians:
“Canada continues to call on the Chinese govt to release #LIUXia and offer her safe passage out of China, according to her wishes. #LIUXiaobo
Artist, poet and human rights defender LIU Xia was placed under house arrest by the Chinese authorities after it was announced that her late husband LIU Xiaobo was to receive the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. She has faced heavy surveillance and harassment; treatment that continues today even after her husband’s death.
At this time it is crucial that Chinese authorities hear a clear message from the international community insisting that LIU Xia’s punishment end and that she be allowed safe passage out of China according to her wishes; as you have urged.
As such, we look to Canada, working alongside other concerned nations, to demonstrate strong global human rights leadership by continuing to press for Liu Xia’s unconditional freedom and by offering her safe haven through an invitation to come and live in Canada. We have no doubt that many in the Chinese-Canadian and human rights communities would enthusiastically provide sponsorship and whatever support is required in bringing her here.
LIU Xiaobo leaves behind a powerful legacy that will inspire the world to continue the struggle for human rights. A particularly meaningful and personal tribute to him will be to ensure that LIU Xia, his widow, is free to do the same.
Minister, we hope that you will continue to raise this urgent human rights case with Chinese counterparts at every opportunity, that you will encourage Prime Minister Trudeau to do similarly and that you will actively forge a partnership with other governments so that Chinese authorities clearly understand that this demand comes from many within the international community.
With leadership and determined diplomacy we are confident that we can indeed succeed to “Free Liu Xia.”
Sincerely,
Alex Neve
Secretary General
Amnesty International Canada (English branch)
On behalf of the Canadian Coalition for Human Rights in China
Thursday, August 03, 2017
Friday, July 07, 2017
Engaging China Poses Potential Risk to Canada's National Security: Charles Burton for Inside Policy (Macdonald-Laurier Institute)
http://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/engaging-china-poses-potential-risk-to-canadas-national-security-charles-burton-for-inside-policy/
"Closer ties with China carries worrisome implications for Canada’s national security, writes Charles Burton. The asymmetrical nature of the relationship suggests that China may leverage economic incentives to further its geopolitical regime goals.
This piece is part of The China Debates series for Inside Policy, with commissioned articles from leading world experts exploring different elements of China’s rise as a great power."
"Closer ties with China carries worrisome implications for Canada’s national security, writes Charles Burton. The asymmetrical nature of the relationship suggests that China may leverage economic incentives to further its geopolitical regime goals.
This piece is part of The China Debates series for Inside Policy, with commissioned articles from leading world experts exploring different elements of China’s rise as a great power."
My Opinion Piece in the Globe and Mail: "Hong Kong, and the litany of Beijing’s betrayal"
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/hong-kong-and-the-litany-of-beijings-betrayal/article35513064/
"China nixed any notions about universal suffrage in Hong Kong, instead introducing pro-Party curriculum in schools, intimidating independent media and illegally relocating several Hong Kong residents deemed hostile to the Beijing regime to the mainland. This betrayal has been met with public outrage and massive protests in the streets, including one in 2014 that occupied some districts of downtown Hong Kong for three months.
More and more young Hong Kongers are now demanding genuine autonomy, if not outright independence, from China, renouncing their Mandarin-based Chinese-ness in favour of a localized Cantonese Hong Kong identity. When some of this new generation were recently democratically elected to the local legislature, China’s No. 3 state leader Zhang Dejiang warned that Hong Kong must be governed by “patriots who sincerely support China’s sovereignty.”
Politically, things are volatile and dangerously uncertain in Hong Kong, and it matters a lot to Canada. There are 300,000 Canadian citizens in Hong Kong, and half a million Canadians of Hong Kong origin reside in Canada. That’s a strong Canadian connection for a place with just seven million residents."
"China nixed any notions about universal suffrage in Hong Kong, instead introducing pro-Party curriculum in schools, intimidating independent media and illegally relocating several Hong Kong residents deemed hostile to the Beijing regime to the mainland. This betrayal has been met with public outrage and massive protests in the streets, including one in 2014 that occupied some districts of downtown Hong Kong for three months.
More and more young Hong Kongers are now demanding genuine autonomy, if not outright independence, from China, renouncing their Mandarin-based Chinese-ness in favour of a localized Cantonese Hong Kong identity. When some of this new generation were recently democratically elected to the local legislature, China’s No. 3 state leader Zhang Dejiang warned that Hong Kong must be governed by “patriots who sincerely support China’s sovereignty.”
Politically, things are volatile and dangerously uncertain in Hong Kong, and it matters a lot to Canada. There are 300,000 Canadian citizens in Hong Kong, and half a million Canadians of Hong Kong origin reside in Canada. That’s a strong Canadian connection for a place with just seven million residents."
Tuesday, June 06, 2017
"Power and Influence: The hard edge of China's soft power" Australian TV documentary
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2017/06/05/4678871.htm
PROF. JOHN FITZGERALD: Well every government of course has an interest in promoting itself abroad to extending its soft power.
I guess what's different about China is the way in which its run through these clandestine operations.
It's just not out there and open.
Secondly, it's really not out to win an argument, it's out to silence dissent and other countries generally don't operate that way.
They expect to win an argument on its strengths, not to silence all opposition.
The way the Chinese Government or Party through the United Front Department and the Overseas Chinese Bureau operates is effectively to control and silence dissent.
. . .
PROF. RORY MEDCALF: There's an awareness of a problem, but the agencies themselves don't have the mandate or the wherewithal to manage the problem.
All they can do is sound the alarm and alert the political class.
The political class needs to take a set of decisions in the interest of Australian sovereignty, in the interest of Australia's independence policy making, to restrict and limit foreign influence in Australian decision making.
CHRIS UHLMANN: After being briefed on the Four Corners-Fairfax investigation, the Attorney General sent us a statement revealing the Prime Minister has asked him to conduct a major inquiry into Australia's espionage and foreign interference laws.
Senator Brandis said, "the threat of political interference by foreign intelligence services is a problem of the highest order and it is getting worse."
PROF. JOHN FITZGERALD: Well every government of course has an interest in promoting itself abroad to extending its soft power.
I guess what's different about China is the way in which its run through these clandestine operations.
It's just not out there and open.
Secondly, it's really not out to win an argument, it's out to silence dissent and other countries generally don't operate that way.
They expect to win an argument on its strengths, not to silence all opposition.
The way the Chinese Government or Party through the United Front Department and the Overseas Chinese Bureau operates is effectively to control and silence dissent.
. . .
PROF. RORY MEDCALF: There's an awareness of a problem, but the agencies themselves don't have the mandate or the wherewithal to manage the problem.
All they can do is sound the alarm and alert the political class.
The political class needs to take a set of decisions in the interest of Australian sovereignty, in the interest of Australia's independence policy making, to restrict and limit foreign influence in Australian decision making.
CHRIS UHLMANN: After being briefed on the Four Corners-Fairfax investigation, the Attorney General sent us a statement revealing the Prime Minister has asked him to conduct a major inquiry into Australia's espionage and foreign interference laws.
Senator Brandis said, "the threat of political interference by foreign intelligence services is a problem of the highest order and it is getting worse."
Monday, June 05, 2017
My Opinion Piece in the Globe and Mail this Morning: "Free-trade talks with China: Proceed with caution"
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/free-trade-talks-with-china-proceed-with-caution/article35192536/
Canada must not be placed in a position whereby proactively speaking out for and defending human rights in China comes at an economic cost to Canada imposed by China, once our economies are integrated through a binding free-trade treaty. Other countries with high economic dependence on China now tread very softly on concerns about Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong, cyberespionage, arbitrary arrests of lawyers and political dissidents and the growing practice of Chinese security forces and policy to operate ever more boldly in foreign jurisdictions, including Canada.
It is also critical that Ottawa demonstrate it will scrutinize all Chinese state investment in Canada, to ensure that our economic integration with China is strictly based on trade and investment reciprocity.
Canada must not be placed in a position whereby proactively speaking out for and defending human rights in China comes at an economic cost to Canada imposed by China, once our economies are integrated through a binding free-trade treaty. Other countries with high economic dependence on China now tread very softly on concerns about Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong, cyberespionage, arbitrary arrests of lawyers and political dissidents and the growing practice of Chinese security forces and policy to operate ever more boldly in foreign jurisdictions, including Canada.
It is also critical that Ottawa demonstrate it will scrutinize all Chinese state investment in Canada, to ensure that our economic integration with China is strictly based on trade and investment reciprocity.
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
Globe and Mail - China’s Premier urges Trudeau to relax controls on high-tech exports
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/chinas-premier-urges-trudeau-to-relax-controls-on-high-tech-exports/article34746356/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com
"Former Canadian diplomat Charles Burton, who served in Beijing, said Mr. Li appears to be pressing China's advantage now that the Trudeau government has allowed O-Net to take over ITF Technologies, a Montreal-based firm involved in sophisticated laser technology with military applications.
"Former Canadian diplomat Charles Burton, who served in Beijing, said Mr. Li appears to be pressing China's advantage now that the Trudeau government has allowed O-Net to take over ITF Technologies, a Montreal-based firm involved in sophisticated laser technology with military applications.
"The reversal of the decision on the O-Net acquisition was really unprecedented in Canada," Mr. Burton said. "Certainly, the fact the Chinese Premier is now flagging high-tech suggests the Chinese government is hoping that Canada will be transferring more high-technology that they may not be able to acquire from other countries and maybe indicating that this will be an important condition of the upcoming free-trade negotiations. … They are seeing this as something they are expecting from Canada now that we have done it with the laser technology."
Mr. Burton said the Prime Minister must be cautious in the trade negotiations that it is not bullied by Beijing to give up key technology, especially when Canada's Five-Eyes intelligence-sharing partners have restrictions on such transfer, including U.S. firms operating in this country.
"The United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand would all be concerned if they felt classified technology was being passed on to China through Canada. I think that would really cause them to question our commitment to the alliance," he said."
Sunday, April 16, 2017
My Opinion piece: "China is paralyzed on looming North Korea threat. Will Trump show restraint? - The Globe and Mail"
China is paralyzed on looming North Korea threat. Will Trump show restraint? - The Globe and Mail
"The post-Kim fallout of a German-like reunification of Korea would be profoundly politically destabilizing for China. The opening of the secret police files and the seeking of redress by the politically wronged, followed by the inevitable public trials for corruption and political venality of China’s “lips and teeth” North Korean political and military elite would trigger huge interest among citizens of China. Parallels to the Chinese system would be too closely drawn for the Chinese Communist Party leadership to explain away, and the threat this poses to mainland Chinese political stability could well be the beginning of the end of the Chinese Communist Party’s single-party authoritarian rule. Moreover, the files would likely show PRC regime complicity in a lot of matters relating to the DPRK that would severely debase China’s international prestige."
"The post-Kim fallout of a German-like reunification of Korea would be profoundly politically destabilizing for China. The opening of the secret police files and the seeking of redress by the politically wronged, followed by the inevitable public trials for corruption and political venality of China’s “lips and teeth” North Korean political and military elite would trigger huge interest among citizens of China. Parallels to the Chinese system would be too closely drawn for the Chinese Communist Party leadership to explain away, and the threat this poses to mainland Chinese political stability could well be the beginning of the end of the Chinese Communist Party’s single-party authoritarian rule. Moreover, the files would likely show PRC regime complicity in a lot of matters relating to the DPRK that would severely debase China’s international prestige."
Monday, April 10, 2017
Canadians wary of deeper economic ties with China: poll - The Globe and Mail
Canadians wary of deeper economic ties with China: poll - The Globe and Mail
Former Canadian diplomat and China expert Charles Burton said the poll makes it clear “most Canadians do not agree” with Mr. McCallum or Mr. Lu when they say human rights should not form part of trade talks.
Mr. Burton said it also suggests Canadians do not want Chinese state-owned companies acquiring majority control of Canadian companies in sensitive sectors such as the oil sands or technology with military applications.
The former Canadian diplomat said Canada should be on guard for language the Chinese may wish to insert in a free-trade deal that could hinder Ottawa’s ability to speak out against human-rights abuses.
“I think the Chinese would attempt to do that … text that talks of mutual respect for the sovereignty of each nation and non-interference in domestic affairs – the kind of language the Chinese could use to press a government,” Mr. Burton said.
Monday, April 03, 2017
Canadian Ambassador Concerned About Canadians Impeding His "Agenda" in China
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/canada-a-long-long-way-from-china-extradition-deal-mccallum/article34560846/
“My job is partly to persuade China to do things, but my job is also to persuade Canada to get its own act in order,” Mr. McCallum said. He expects to return to Canada every six to eight weeks. There are “things that people in Canada are doing which are impeding our agenda over here,” he said.
“My job is partly to persuade China to do things, but my job is also to persuade Canada to get its own act in order,” Mr. McCallum said. He expects to return to Canada every six to eight weeks. There are “things that people in Canada are doing which are impeding our agenda over here,” he said.
Friday, March 31, 2017
Australian former High Commissioner - "Trade with China: Proceed with caution"
"It’s too early to say what, if anything, the FTA will deliver, trade-wise. Australian exports to China are actually down. . . . Beggaring belief, a Chinese firm with military connections was allowed to take over the management of our northernmost port of Darwin. . . . If Canada is to draw one conclusion from Australia’s experience, it’s for political leaders to take the Canadian people with them, openly, in advance."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/trade-with-china-proceed-with-caution/article34493609/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/trade-with-china-proceed-with-caution/article34493609/
Saturday, March 04, 2017
Government Consulting Canadians on a possible Canada-China free trade agreement
"The Government of Canada is asking the Canadian public and interested Canadian stakeholders to help define Canada’s interests in a possible FTA with China, and identify ways of maximizing the economic and social benefits of such an agreement. We want to hear from you and we commit to providing feedback on what we are hearing from you. The Government of Canada is committed to hearing from Canadians on this important subject and will ensure that Canadians continue to have the opportunity to provide their views as we engage with China, including through additional consultations in the event that Canada and China decide to move to formal FTA negotiations."
Comment from me: The key is how seriously the consultations will be taken by my Government. I really do wonder about this.
Friday, February 17, 2017
My Opinion Piece on Canada-China Free Trade Published in Globe and Mail today
China sees similar advantage in weaning Canada away from our economic and political alliance with the United States, but it also expects to get compromises that further its regime interests. Canada has already ceded ground on this, making recent concessions – with no promise whatsoever of reciprocal considerations – to ease limits on Chinese state investment in Canada; seize and repatriate assets of certain Chinese nationals in Canada; and (inexplicably) reverse a national security review that prevented a Beijing-backed concern from buying Canadian advanced laser technology with military application for directed-energy weapons that China is desperate to develop.
Tuesday, January 31, 2017
My Opinion Piece on Trump-Canada-China
http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2017/01/31/as-trump-roils-ottawa-shuffles-the-deck-to-play-a-new-china-card
Today, Xi Jinping’s regime is militarily aggressive and much more demanding of nations where China has established economic leverage through strategic trade and investment agreements.
More China in the Canadian economy appears to be Canada’s future as the U.S. lapses into protectionism. In trying to negotiate a free trade with China, a key issue for Canada will be, do we have to negotiate away our commitment to Canadian liberal and democratic values to get the deal?
Canadian citizen seized from Hong Kong
Chinese billionaire seized from Hong Kong
In a statement posted on the WeChat account of the Tomorrow Group, published on Tuesday and purportedly from Mr Xiao, said he was overseas for medical treatment and would return “soon”.
In the statement, which was subsequently deleted by censors, he denied he had been “abducted to the mainland”. He said he was a Canadian citizen and Hong Kong permanent resident who was protected by the Canadian consulate and Hong Kong law. He added that he “had never harmed the interests of the country” or “supported any opposition organisation”.
. . .
It is common for Chinese businesspeople and others detained by China’s powerful security apparatus to be pressed to release messages through social media, email or via their families insisting that all is fine.
In a statement posted on the WeChat account of the Tomorrow Group, published on Tuesday and purportedly from Mr Xiao, said he was overseas for medical treatment and would return “soon”.
In the statement, which was subsequently deleted by censors, he denied he had been “abducted to the mainland”. He said he was a Canadian citizen and Hong Kong permanent resident who was protected by the Canadian consulate and Hong Kong law. He added that he “had never harmed the interests of the country” or “supported any opposition organisation”.
. . .
It is common for Chinese businesspeople and others detained by China’s powerful security apparatus to be pressed to release messages through social media, email or via their families insisting that all is fine.
Tuesday, January 17, 2017
United States Congress set to introduce Hong Kong human rights act ‘in coming days’
http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2062798/will-hong-kongs-pro-democracy-camp-find-ally-trump?utm_content=bufferfbb85&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#
"The law would require the US president to identify persons responsible for the surveillance, abduction, detention or forced confessions of booksellers and journalists in Hong Kong or other actions suppressing basic freedoms, and to freeze their US-based assets and deny them entry into the country."
"The law would require the US president to identify persons responsible for the surveillance, abduction, detention or forced confessions of booksellers and journalists in Hong Kong or other actions suppressing basic freedoms, and to freeze their US-based assets and deny them entry into the country."
Sunday, January 15, 2017
Tibet protesters detained in Swiss capital during Xi Jinping visit
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN14Z0U6
Jiang questioned Swiss leaders' control over their country and remarked that they risked "losing a good friend".
China and Switzerland forged a free trade agreement in 2014 and Swiss companies count China among their most important markets.
Tuesday, December 06, 2016
My Opinion piece in the Globe and Mail: "Enlisting Beijing to help stop fentanyl exports won’t be easy"
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/enlisting-beijing-to-help-stop-fentanyl-exports-wont-be-easy/article33207872/?post_id=10153521909684078_10154879006114078#_=_
"For students of Chinese history, there’s irony in Canada’s demand on moral grounds that China suppress the export of a synthetic opioid. In the 19th century, opium addiction in China was rampant, and the opium was almost entirely imported into China from British India. In response, China implemented the world’s earliest drug laws, making the sale, import and consumption of opium illegal."
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
The Prime Minister’s private meetings with China
When CSIS Director Michel Coulombe appeared before the Senate Committee on National Security and Defence earlier this year, his briefing notes raised serious concerns about China targeting Canada’s “government officials and systems.”
Now we have news reports emerging that Justin Trudeau attended a cash-for-access event last May at the Toronto mansion of a Chinese-Canadian executive (‘Trudeau attended fundraiser with Chinese billionaires’; Globe and Mail, Nov. 22). Was our own prime minister one of the government officials the CSIS boss was referring to?
Attendees at the Toronto fundraiser reportedly included citizens of the People’s Republic of China, who by Canadian law cannot donate funds to Canadian political parties. Apparently this sufficiently concerned a senior Liberal Party official that photos from the event were anonymously passed to the press in a plain brown envelope.
The Prime Minister’s official itinerary for May 19 reads “private meetings.” At the private event, the flag of China was displayed alongside that of Canada, and the guest list included senior officials of Chinese state institutions, Chinese billionaires with serious money to invest, and people involved in an application to establish the Wealth One Bank of Canada, whose purpose is given as “to serve Chinese people (huaren).”
Zhang Bin, a Chinese citizen who facilitated a $1-million donation to the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation (including funds to be used to erect a statue of the Prime Minister’s father) was also present.
One consequence of Donald Trump’s election as US president will be more opportunities for China's Communist regime to expand its influence with the Government of Canada. It is very likely that Mr. Trump will enact measures early in his term that will negatively impact Canada’s economy by restricting our access to US markets. If our economy sputters because of Mr. Trump’s isolationist policy, Ottawa will look hard at other foreign partners to make up for lost growth. Chinese state investment will be waiting, and with their negotiating position much improved thanks to Mr. Trump, Beijing will undoubtedly seek to exact a political price that Canada has until now not been prepared to pay.
What this means is that, to get Chinese state investment, Canada must not “hurt the feelings of the Chinese people” (the standard Chinese regime phrase) by standing up for humans rights of people in Hong Kong, Taiwan, ethnic minorities in China and human rights defence lawyers in China, many of whom are in prison on trumped-up charges. They will also want Ottawa to deport back to China any Chinese nationals who are in Canada for political or economic exile, so they can face Chinese justice, no questions asked.
In addition, the Liberals will be pressured to remove the Harper Government’s restrictions on Chinese state investment holding majority control of companies operating in oil and mining sectors. And, of course, this only works for the Chinese state if Ottawa authorizes construction of an oil pipeline to the B.C. coast, where Chinese tankers will access the port facilities.
It appears our Government is already preparing to accede to Beijing in all these areas.
Public opinion polls indicate that most Canadians want Ottawa to effectively engage the China on human rights concerns, and are opposed to Chinese state control of critical elements of Canada’s economy. (This of course is not reciprocal, as Beijing would never allow comparable Canadian investment in China.) Canadians are also skeptical about Chinese state firms’ compliance with our environmental and labour standards.
So the question is, why are meetings attended by our Prime Minister — where the Chinese flag is displayed, and Justin Trudeau engages in high spirits with senior people associated with the Chinese regime — vaguely listed as “private meetings”?
Canadians should be given transparency as our leaders ponder an enormously significant political and economic re-orientation to the much more strategically powerful China.
Free trade with China will be next on the agenda. But on what terms?
Canadians deserve a full and open accounting before our Government signs on any bottom line.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Remarks to Panel “The Rise of Trumpism” Brock University 17NOV16
The Rise of Trumpism: what happened and what’s next?
The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency was unexpected by most professors of political science — in the United States from Berkeley to Columbia, and indeed in Canada from our McGill to York to UBC. It was unexpected by professors here at Brock too. To them it seems incomprehensible that the American people have chosen as the leader of the free world a man they would characterize as a narcissistic boor whose rationality in discourse is overwhelmed by xenophobic resentments, and whose frustrations express in racism and misogyny.
These are the same people who were at a loss to explain how Rob Ford was popularly elected as mayor of Toronto. Nor could they comprehend how Mr Ford sustained very strong support among a significant fraction of residents of Toronto throughout his political career, despite successive revelations of what the media and political elites loudly declaimed as highly unacceptable disreputable behaviour on Mr. Ford’s part.
But Rob Ford as a municipal leader was not in a position of as much authority as Donald Trump will be. Mayor Ford’s scope for destructive damage was much more constrained than President Trump’s will be. Mr. Ford had no access to the codes for setting off nuclear bombs or capacity to declare war on nations that offended him. But Mr. Trump will.
I have also been here long enough to have been party to the failure of Western political science to have anticipated the collapse of the Soviet Union and demise of the Marxist-Leninist dictatorships that dominated most of Eastern Europe up to the 1990s. We political scientists seem to be more perplexed and bewildered by game changing political change than able to anticipate and account for it.
The response of so many seems to parallel the great German composer Felix Mendelssohn’s paraphrase of the Old Testament Psalm 55, “Hear My Prayer,” in which King David laments
“My heart is sorely pained, within my breast,
my soul with deathly terror is oppressed,
trembling and fearfulness up on me fall,
with horror overwhelmed, Lord, hear me call!”
Well this does not make for very good social scientific analysis! So the larger question it raises is: “political science: what’s the good in it??”
It turns out that evidently illiberal populism is the preferred political option for close to half of the U.S. electorate. In my case I have dedicated most of my career to scholarly and government work on China and North Korea. So perhaps this makes me more sanguine about illiberal politics than most. After all the Government of North Korea issued a very strong endorsement of Mr. Trump’s candidacy early on in his campaign. I don’t judge this had much impact on the outcome. But it is no surprise that Mr. Trump is the favoured choice among authoritarian dictators from Asia to Africa to Latin America.
Our failure to predict the strong appeal of Mr. Trump to a definitive element of the U.S. population leads all the more to questioning political science here at Brock in St Catharines. After all we now know that most of Trump’s support comes from rural areas and smaller towns with a predominantly less educated blue collar population and higher than the national average unemployment rates. In other words, places like our Niagara.
Similarly to these alienated parts of the USA we here in Niagara know well that we are not central to the awareness of the smug elites of Toronto, Montreal Ottawa and Vancouver. As someone who is sometimes invited to Ottawa to advise on Canada’s China policy, I realize this all the more. I have had this conversation many times: “Oh so you are at Brock University. You know I have passed through Brockville many times on the 401 but have never had a chance to visit your campus! . . . Please let us know the next time you are back in Ottawa.” But the idea that they would ever have occasion to travel to St Catharines is certainly never a consideration.
And Niagara is culturally different from the more urban settings of Canada. For example our 19-year-old Brock University Political Science student Sam Oosterhoff from Vineland will likely become the next MPP from Niagara West-Glanbrook. Sam is a strong social conservative. A candidate with his conservative Christian values would be highly unlikely to succeed in Rosedale, Westmount-Outremont or Ottawa-Carleton.
Many of the Trump supporters are the collateral damage of the higher cause of globalization in the underclasses particularly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio — once the proud industrial heartland of America. These are people who had been left behind by the revolutions in technology and globalization, the impact of resultant devastation much underappreciated from the privileged enclaves of the elites in Washington and New York. Donald Trump’s supporters are the dispossessed who yearn for a champion who will take strong measures to set things to rights. And dismantle a rigged system that they see as having been captured by effete elites. In many ways his rise is comparable to the military coups welcomed by the people in less democratic systems
The half of U.S. citizens who voted Trump are not unduly concerned by his racist, sexist and Islamophobic discourse or the critiques of those who point out the exaggerations and deceptive inaccuracies expounded by Mr. Trump. The bottom line is that social values transformation in the US rural areas has not kept pace with urban America.
I am old enough to remember the 1960s and 1970s when pervasive discrimination and racism was mainstream social realities.
It was accepted as simply a function of the natural order that women would be subject to systemic discrimination that severely constrained their life options.
Homosexuality was both taboo and illegal under the laws of Canada.
Society had a hierarchy of white protestants at the top
followed by Catholics
followed by Jews
followed by Chinese and Indians
followed by blacks of all origins at the bottom.
Bear in mind that it was only in 1947 that Canadians of Chinese origin were extended the right to vote in Canadian elections.
Jokes based on denigration of women or homosexuals or persons of colour was considered a high form of white male entertainment.
There was a popular American socially progressive TV program of the 1970s, "All in the Family " that satirized the values of the generation of blue collar workers that had grown up in the U.S. in the1930s. The theme song of this show was entitled "Those Were the Days. " Part of that song went:
“And you knew who you were then,
Girls were girls and men were men,
Mister we could use a man
Like Herbert Hoover again.
Didn't need no welfare state,
Everybody pulled his weight.
Guys like us we had it made,
Those were the days”
So there is strong opposition among the Trump supporters to Obamacare as it is considered the road to more intrusions of the state into a free society.
But, more significantly, as Carol Anderson, a historian at Atlanta’s Emory University, put in her interview with Doug Saunders published in the Globe and Mail on Saturday:
“You know, if you’ve always been privileged, equality begins to look like oppression. That’s part of what you’re seeing in terms of the [white] pessimism, particularly when the system gets defined as a zero-sum game – that you can only gain at somebody else’s loss.”
It is serious: Hilary Clinton only got 51% of college educated white women
The strong support in the U.S. for illiberal populist politics is not resolved by mobilizing all those who would vote against Trump to come out and fill out a ballot the next time. The sole route to resolution of this rising political force in America and throughout the Western world is to address the causes for the severe discontent of those who are so alienated from liberal values of social justice and tolerance of difference.
International impact
Once Mr. Trump assumes the presidency he will likely receive new information and advice that will lead President Trump to modify some of the positions that he espoused in the course of the election campaign and even abandon some of his more intemperate proposals. And who he chooses for key positions in US foreign policy leadership positions will have a strong impact
But it is fair to say that Trump will not support ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
The U.S. will abandon commitment to measures to mitigate climate change.
And tariffs will be imposed on imports from China, Mexico, Canada.
An isolationist America will likely lead to China being able to bring South Korea, Taiwan and the Southeast Asian nations into its geopolitical orbit.
It is all bad news for the prospects of democracy and human rights globally.
To maintain our Canadian prosperity if our economy suffers due to U.S. changing the terms of NAFTA, Canada will likely be more amenable to allowing Chinese state firms access to the Canadian energy and natural resources sectors and to develop infrastructure to get Canadian tar sands oil and minerals to the Canadian west coast for transhipment to Asia. But it would necessarily be on Chinese terms with illiberal political costs that Canada has not been willing to bear up to now.
Let me conclude by saying that
In general I cannot see much in the way of prospect of positive consequences in the Trump presidency contributing to the building of a more just, peaceful and prosperous world.
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak here today.
The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency was unexpected by most professors of political science — in the United States from Berkeley to Columbia, and indeed in Canada from our McGill to York to UBC. It was unexpected by professors here at Brock too. To them it seems incomprehensible that the American people have chosen as the leader of the free world a man they would characterize as a narcissistic boor whose rationality in discourse is overwhelmed by xenophobic resentments, and whose frustrations express in racism and misogyny.
These are the same people who were at a loss to explain how Rob Ford was popularly elected as mayor of Toronto. Nor could they comprehend how Mr Ford sustained very strong support among a significant fraction of residents of Toronto throughout his political career, despite successive revelations of what the media and political elites loudly declaimed as highly unacceptable disreputable behaviour on Mr. Ford’s part.
But Rob Ford as a municipal leader was not in a position of as much authority as Donald Trump will be. Mayor Ford’s scope for destructive damage was much more constrained than President Trump’s will be. Mr. Ford had no access to the codes for setting off nuclear bombs or capacity to declare war on nations that offended him. But Mr. Trump will.
I have also been here long enough to have been party to the failure of Western political science to have anticipated the collapse of the Soviet Union and demise of the Marxist-Leninist dictatorships that dominated most of Eastern Europe up to the 1990s. We political scientists seem to be more perplexed and bewildered by game changing political change than able to anticipate and account for it.
The response of so many seems to parallel the great German composer Felix Mendelssohn’s paraphrase of the Old Testament Psalm 55, “Hear My Prayer,” in which King David laments
“My heart is sorely pained, within my breast,
my soul with deathly terror is oppressed,
trembling and fearfulness up on me fall,
with horror overwhelmed, Lord, hear me call!”
Well this does not make for very good social scientific analysis! So the larger question it raises is: “political science: what’s the good in it??”
It turns out that evidently illiberal populism is the preferred political option for close to half of the U.S. electorate. In my case I have dedicated most of my career to scholarly and government work on China and North Korea. So perhaps this makes me more sanguine about illiberal politics than most. After all the Government of North Korea issued a very strong endorsement of Mr. Trump’s candidacy early on in his campaign. I don’t judge this had much impact on the outcome. But it is no surprise that Mr. Trump is the favoured choice among authoritarian dictators from Asia to Africa to Latin America.
Our failure to predict the strong appeal of Mr. Trump to a definitive element of the U.S. population leads all the more to questioning political science here at Brock in St Catharines. After all we now know that most of Trump’s support comes from rural areas and smaller towns with a predominantly less educated blue collar population and higher than the national average unemployment rates. In other words, places like our Niagara.
Similarly to these alienated parts of the USA we here in Niagara know well that we are not central to the awareness of the smug elites of Toronto, Montreal Ottawa and Vancouver. As someone who is sometimes invited to Ottawa to advise on Canada’s China policy, I realize this all the more. I have had this conversation many times: “Oh so you are at Brock University. You know I have passed through Brockville many times on the 401 but have never had a chance to visit your campus! . . . Please let us know the next time you are back in Ottawa.” But the idea that they would ever have occasion to travel to St Catharines is certainly never a consideration.
And Niagara is culturally different from the more urban settings of Canada. For example our 19-year-old Brock University Political Science student Sam Oosterhoff from Vineland will likely become the next MPP from Niagara West-Glanbrook. Sam is a strong social conservative. A candidate with his conservative Christian values would be highly unlikely to succeed in Rosedale, Westmount-Outremont or Ottawa-Carleton.
Many of the Trump supporters are the collateral damage of the higher cause of globalization in the underclasses particularly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio — once the proud industrial heartland of America. These are people who had been left behind by the revolutions in technology and globalization, the impact of resultant devastation much underappreciated from the privileged enclaves of the elites in Washington and New York. Donald Trump’s supporters are the dispossessed who yearn for a champion who will take strong measures to set things to rights. And dismantle a rigged system that they see as having been captured by effete elites. In many ways his rise is comparable to the military coups welcomed by the people in less democratic systems
The half of U.S. citizens who voted Trump are not unduly concerned by his racist, sexist and Islamophobic discourse or the critiques of those who point out the exaggerations and deceptive inaccuracies expounded by Mr. Trump. The bottom line is that social values transformation in the US rural areas has not kept pace with urban America.
I am old enough to remember the 1960s and 1970s when pervasive discrimination and racism was mainstream social realities.
It was accepted as simply a function of the natural order that women would be subject to systemic discrimination that severely constrained their life options.
Homosexuality was both taboo and illegal under the laws of Canada.
Society had a hierarchy of white protestants at the top
followed by Catholics
followed by Jews
followed by Chinese and Indians
followed by blacks of all origins at the bottom.
Bear in mind that it was only in 1947 that Canadians of Chinese origin were extended the right to vote in Canadian elections.
Jokes based on denigration of women or homosexuals or persons of colour was considered a high form of white male entertainment.
There was a popular American socially progressive TV program of the 1970s, "All in the Family " that satirized the values of the generation of blue collar workers that had grown up in the U.S. in the1930s. The theme song of this show was entitled "Those Were the Days. " Part of that song went:
“And you knew who you were then,
Girls were girls and men were men,
Mister we could use a man
Like Herbert Hoover again.
Didn't need no welfare state,
Everybody pulled his weight.
Guys like us we had it made,
Those were the days”
So there is strong opposition among the Trump supporters to Obamacare as it is considered the road to more intrusions of the state into a free society.
But, more significantly, as Carol Anderson, a historian at Atlanta’s Emory University, put in her interview with Doug Saunders published in the Globe and Mail on Saturday:
“You know, if you’ve always been privileged, equality begins to look like oppression. That’s part of what you’re seeing in terms of the [white] pessimism, particularly when the system gets defined as a zero-sum game – that you can only gain at somebody else’s loss.”
It is serious: Hilary Clinton only got 51% of college educated white women
The strong support in the U.S. for illiberal populist politics is not resolved by mobilizing all those who would vote against Trump to come out and fill out a ballot the next time. The sole route to resolution of this rising political force in America and throughout the Western world is to address the causes for the severe discontent of those who are so alienated from liberal values of social justice and tolerance of difference.
International impact
Once Mr. Trump assumes the presidency he will likely receive new information and advice that will lead President Trump to modify some of the positions that he espoused in the course of the election campaign and even abandon some of his more intemperate proposals. And who he chooses for key positions in US foreign policy leadership positions will have a strong impact
But it is fair to say that Trump will not support ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
The U.S. will abandon commitment to measures to mitigate climate change.
And tariffs will be imposed on imports from China, Mexico, Canada.
An isolationist America will likely lead to China being able to bring South Korea, Taiwan and the Southeast Asian nations into its geopolitical orbit.
It is all bad news for the prospects of democracy and human rights globally.
To maintain our Canadian prosperity if our economy suffers due to U.S. changing the terms of NAFTA, Canada will likely be more amenable to allowing Chinese state firms access to the Canadian energy and natural resources sectors and to develop infrastructure to get Canadian tar sands oil and minerals to the Canadian west coast for transhipment to Asia. But it would necessarily be on Chinese terms with illiberal political costs that Canada has not been willing to bear up to now.
Let me conclude by saying that
In general I cannot see much in the way of prospect of positive consequences in the Trump presidency contributing to the building of a more just, peaceful and prosperous world.
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak here today.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
James Palmer "China Just Won The U.S. Election"
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/09/china-just-won-the-u-s-election-trump-victory/
"Trump is also exactly the kind of businessman who is most easily taken in by China — credulous, focused on the externalities of wealth, and massively susceptible to flattery. A single trip, with Chinese laying on the charm, could leave him as fond of China’s strongmen as he is of Russia’s Putin."
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